Tiger Geist

No other way to explain it.. hats off to Kansas City and Cleveland in how they are fixing their bullpen.

As I just mentioned, KC signed Kyle Farnsworth.  I have no idea what role he will play (setup man?), but i like most hitters’ chances against him.

While I’m concerned about Detroit’s lack of a closer, I don’t think signing K-Rod or Kerry Wood would be a smart decision.  Kerry Wood is switching leagues (I’m always skeptical about the NL to AL move), and has a bad injury history.  How bad?  Tony Paul has a nice writeup about it in today’s Detroit News.  Until last year, Wood had SIX STRAIGHT seasons with right shoulder issues.  In those seasons, he missed an average of 59 games / year.  Thats someone you want to invest $10 mil / year on?  Especially for a small(er) market team like Cleveland?

At ~$13 mil / year, K-Rod seems like a bargain.  Except the Angels sure seemed to allow him to throw every possible inning over the last few years.  Its like they knew they weren’t going to re-sign him anyway, so they had no concerns about blowing out his arm.  I’ll be amazed if he doesn’t end up on the DL at least once / year during his Mets stint.

Honestly, maybe Double D shouldn’t get so much slack for drafting college relievers last year.  The market seems to over-value closers so much that its cost prohibitive to sign (or trade for) an established closer — even ones with gigantic red flags in terms of their injury history (JJ Putz, Wood).  Getting what might be an average starting pitcher (Edwin Jackson) for a fourth outfielder (Matt Joyce) seems like a steal compared to what Detroit would have to give up to get Putz alone.

Its December 19th, and now I’m going to re-evaluate the trade that sent Pudge to the Yankees for Kyle Farnsworth and a pile of dog poop in late July.

Reactions were kind of mixed on the trade;  I think its safe to say that both teams were underwhelmed by the results.  Farnsworth was rock solid, if you were batting against him;  there were rumors that some of the Yankee pitching staff refused to pitch to Pudge.  At the time Detroit thought it had a shot at the playoffs, instead they finished the season on the ass-end of the division.  Not doing the trade probably wouldn’t have changed much for either team in terms of wins and losses.

We started to hear rumors of growing unrest in the locker room, so maybe in the long run Pudge had to go.  On the flip side, many felt Detroit should keep Pudge so they could offer arbitration, gathering some draft pick(s) in return.  Looking at the current market structure, the Tigers probably wouldn’t have offered arbitration (Pudge likely would have taken it) anyway.  The backstop of Laird / Misty May-Treanor’s husband comes at cost of about half of what Pudge would have made in arbitration, with arguably better defense… and I bet Laird out-hits Pudge in 2009.

So what did we learn from the trade? If it kept the team together and didn’t upset the nucleus in the club-house for ‘09, Pudge probably had to be moved.  Its obvious that Detroit traded for the wrong person, getting basically nothing in return.  Hindsight is 20/20;  the beauty is that Farnsworth signed in Kansas City, so maybe Detroit will get its revenge soon enough.

In a not surprising move, Detroit signs the husband of Misty May-Treanor.  You may remember her as the somewhat attractive olympian and one of the best female beach volleyball players of all time.  Her husband.. not so much.  But he’s a great defensive catcher, and paired with the recent acquisition of Gerald Laird, he gives the pitching staff no excuses.  It also guarantees that Dusty Ryan starts the season in Toledo, which is a very good thing.

Downside?  Misty May has a ruptured achilles and is now pregnant, so she won’t be strutting her bikini near CoPa anytime soon.  Also there is the possible gripe between Treanor and Miguel Cabrera… what are the chances that Cabrera puts up a nice photo spread of Misty May in his locker next year to show his support?

Interesting:  Laird is listed at 6-1, 225.  Treanor:  6-2, 220 (in the detnews article;  6-0 210 in tigers.com).  Dusty Ryan:  6-4, 220.  Al Avila:  5-11, 210.  James Skelton, 5-11, 165.   One of these things is not like the other…

Great article / interview with Curtis Granderson by Lee at Tiger Tales.  Made me wonder about another need Detroit hasn’t attempted to address:  leadoff hitter.  

As Granderson continues to get better, I still feel he’d be very successful in the middle of the order.  Leyland said they it doesn’t really matter; they don’t have anyone else to bat lead-off anyway.  So is there any urgency to fill the top of the order, allowing Curtis to move down?

The article also makes me wonder… does Detroit have concerns about Granderson’s ability to play center?  Or, better put, how good is a Clete Thomas in center?  Brent Clevlen is supposed a ‘plus defender’ as well.  If we are concerned about Detroit having given up a left handed power hitter with above average defense… doesn’t that speak pretty well of an older Curtis Granderson?  Did the emergence of Clete Thomas last year, as well as the Clevlen being out of options, make Matt Joyce expandable for a position where Detroit has little depth (starting pitching)?  I can see the thought that Joyce was ‘blocked’ by Maggs, Guillen, and Thames… but maybe Dombrowski saw Joyce being blocked by Granderson as well.  I don’t think anyone will be happy with the trade, but its possible we won’t be able to evaluate it for a few years.

Jason Beck talks about the World Baseball Classic, and how it might affect spring training.  I wonder if that gives a few more players a chance to catch management’s eye, or will the lack of the split-squad games keep everything normal?  I wonder how some of the pitchers will react.. will the WBC make Verlander (if he plays) sharper in April, or will it just hurt his chances to pitch deep into a pennant race?  Or both?  My hope is that, with many of the best players taking a few extra weeks off, it gives a chance for the coaching staff, the new pitching coach, and the catchers to work with some of our guys who need some ‘refinement’ — Willis, Robertson, Bonderman, and possibly Edwin Jackson.

Time to remember the login to the blog…

I head to South Lake Tahoe for a week, and Dombrowski starts going crazy in Vegas.  My NFL gambling for the week has pretty much mirrored Detroit’s transactions:  a push.

Transaction 1:  Signing Adam Everett.

Tough one… I’m a huge baseball fans.  And I’ve never heard of this guy.  So its the type of guy I like to sign to a minimal contract.  It also pains me that if i was the one of the worst baseball players in the world I could still be making a million dollars.  For some reason I kind of liked Omar Vizquel in this role of playing 100 - 110 games / year at short, but Everett is about 45 years younger.  He forms a good(if not very to very very good) defensive left side of the infield.  As bad as his hitting is, he’s basically Brandon Inge with less pop.  Is that  compliment?  Actually, minus the home run barrage in 2006, Inge’s stats (and nose-dive) is unfortunately similar to Everett’s.  Good luck to you young man.  Let’s not mention his injury history for now.

Transaction 2:  Trade for Gerald Laird.

This one makes total sense.  Very good defensive catcher (notice a trend?) going into the prime of his career.  I’m a huge fan of 28 - 30 year old players who haven’t played a lot.. I call it the Marcus Thames / Jack Cust syndrome — at some point guys just kind of figure it out, normally around 28 - 30 years old.  The downside?  Little… traded for intriguing prospects that most have never heard of.  The upside?  He may still improve as a hitter — think Carlos Guillen (28 / 29 in his first season with Detroit, and enjoyed a breakout season).  Don’t know enough about Laird to predict the future, but his home / away splits seem impossible:  he hits better away from Arlington.  There is hope that his numbers will improve.  I like the trade.

Transaction 3:  Trade for Edwin Jackson (giving up Matt Joyce).

Matt Joyce came out of nowhere last year to give Detroit some much needed “pep”, then cooled off considerably for the rest of the season.  There was a lot of hope that Joyce could turn into a very good corner outfielder;  probably not an all-star, but middle of the order left hander with power.  He was also hitting well in winter ball.  Its hard to predict his upside (he was young, but didn’t exactly tear up the minor leagues), and if he was right handed we probably wouldn’t care so much.

The return goods?  An impressive talent with average results in a 25 year old hard throwing pitcher.  Looking at his numbers… he’s basically a Jeremy Bonderman with less strike outs.  Its hard to judge the transaction because its based on predictions.. both are too young to really judge.  There’s no reason to be excited about Bonderman’s upside (with his seeming inability to learn an off-speed pitch) and think Edwin Jackson is worthless.  And… to a team that has the incredible opportunity to employ both Nate Robertson AND Dontrelle Willis in 2009, I can’t see how this trade can be frowned upon.  My real concern here… Dombrowski / Leyland / Detroit must really be worried about their starting pitching.  No idea why they’d give up a talented and young and left-handed corner outfielder unless they aren’t concerned about the starting rotation, and the depth in Toledo.  How many marlboro’s does Leyland smoke when he thinks about running Fast Eddie Bonine out to the mound for a 3 inning start?  So this trade?  Can’t evaluate for another year or two.  I can easily see Jackson as our #2 starter this year (let’s face it, its not like Verlander lit it up this year either).  If you can toss out the entire Tiger starting rotation’s 2008 season (sans Galarraga), why would you hold Jackson’s 14-11 record against him?

Transaction 4 (if you can call it that):  Losing James Skelton in the rule 5 draft.

Everyone seems to be up in arms about this.  I’d love for Skelton to prove me wrong, just as much as I’d like Brandon Inge to prove me wrong about not sucking at the plate (Gary Sheffield, take note).  There has been talk how Skelton will turn out even with his small frame.. but I ask you this:  How does it make sense that Brandon Inge breaks down when he’s catching, but Skelton grades out to be a solid #2 catcher?  Inge is a superb athlete, and Skelton looks like a 12 year old girl.  Sorry, if losing Skelton in the rule 5 draft is a serious dent in our farm system talent, then Detroit is SCREWED.

I’m sure there will be more trades or FA signings over the next few months, but I think it was smart for Dombrowski to not make a deal just to make a deal.  There are enough concerns about the big name closers (K-rod — overused for three years; Putz — arm concerns;  Kerry Wood — Kerry Wood) that there doesn’t seem to be a need to over-pay.  I’m concerned about the closer situation, and I’d love for the team to be in a better spot to not rush along Mr. Zumaya, but… seriously… should we stress over Kerry Wood?  I hope not.

General Tigergeist update:  Slowly working on a site redesign.  I’m enjoying the near-hourly updates on the other main tiger blogs, as well as some of the new sites that have popped up.  Keep up the good work everyone…

I’m not going to worry about whether Detroit should have protected James Skelton on their 40 man roster — he doesn’t project to be a major league starting catcher and I’m not fretting it.  I am concerned about 2009 as a whole.  Very very concerned.

What’s to be worried about?  The more we look at it, the more it becomes obvious why Jim Leyland is begging for a contract extension to whomever will listen:  He knows they won’t contend in 2009, and he wants to be around for when the reinforcements come to town.  These reinforcements would either be via the recent drafts (power pitching) or free agents (possibly more salary with Sheffield and other contracts coming up).

Jayson Stark outlines it as well as you can say it.  If Detroit plays remarkably better then they did in 2008, they still may not even win their division.  I’d say there is a better chance that Cleveland bounces back then Detroit does, and there is no way to fix the current team setup.  Sheffield isn’t the player he once was.  There is no shortstop or catcher.  I’m very very nervous about the health of Carlos Guillen (your new starting left fielder).  Granderson didn’t improve in 2008.  Detroit has no starting pitching depth — they may not even have five major league quality starting pitchers.

The good side?  Miguel Cabrera is a monster, and he’s only getting better.  Detroit _thinks_ they have an answer at shortstop and possibly even catcher by 2010.  The bullpen will improve, as will the starting pitching… again in 2010.  Leyland knows he has to manage his older players better, which may help get better mileage out of the likes of Sheffield and Guillen throughout the season.  I have faith in Granderson, and if we can get some contribution out of a Jeff Larish / Mike Hessman (backups with some pop in the bat) it might spark the team on down nights.

I’m hoping these crappy-shortstop trade rumors (Lugo, Wilson) are just media speculation. I’d rather re-sign Renteria to a short term contract and reduce his role then trade anyone of value for yearly rental, or just to ‘make a deal to make a deal’.

What could be interesting about 2009?  The possible ‘what ifs’.  What if Inge can hit .250?  What if they get a shortstop (whomever it might be) that is decent defensively and doesn’t hurt the lineup?  What if Granderson turns another page?  What if Sheffield either hits like he should, or the team decides to eat his salary?  What if some of the power arms are ready for a mid-season call up?  What if someone in Toledo is on a monster tear offensively?  If Detroit can swallow some salary and are flexible enough to play the hot hand, maybe they can make things interesting.

Detroit set its 40 man roster last week, which means… not a lot.  I mean, we can pine over who was or wasn’t included, but the fact that Gary Sheffield, Brandon Inge, Carlos Guillen, Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson are still on the roster and commanding a large portion of the payroll (thus demanding that they actually play), let’s not go crazy here.  All five players would be gone in a heart beat if Detroit could move them.  No i’m not buying the “Brandon Inge is so great defensively that he has to play third base for the team”.  He’s playing third base because his salary demands it and he’s proven he can’t catch.

What do I find interesting about the 40 man roster?  The amount of third/first basemen who seem to be too old to be playing in Toledo.  Seems ripe for a trade of either Larish or Hessman.  I’d personally like to see Inge move out and platoon Larish and Hessman at third, and have Larish get 10 - 20 games in at first.  For some reason I feel a Hessman for Oakland’s Bobby Crosby trade would work out for both teams, especially if Oakland is able to sign Rafael Furcal.

I’m worried that Dusty Ryan needs to play at least half of the season in Toledo full time.  Not sure if the roster is flexible enough to go get two catchers, however.  He sure looks like a player, albeit in very limited major league action.

I’m going to imagine that the Phillies are going to win the series at this point.  Question for Tampa is similar to what Detroit dealt with in the wake of the 2006 world series disaster:  How to assess their situation, how to address any glaring needs, and how long do they feel they have a window at winning?

I saw an interview with the TB GM earlier this year, and he stated something to the effect that Tampa has a limited payroll, and when they have a shot at a championship they have to take it.  Does that mean they make a serious run at a high priced free agent?  Or make some trades (ala Detroit with Gary Sheffield) for a missing piece?

I don’t think this year was a fluke for Tampa, I think they can be competitive for a few years if they decide to keep everything intact.  Whether management will give them the green-light to make some moves is to be deteremined.  In the long run, it doesn’t appear the prospects given to the Yankees in the Sheffield trade was a huge deal… on the flip side, the issue was being stuck with Sheffield and his troublesome shoulder (and contract extension).

Good luck to the Rays in the future;  I have to tip my hat (and thank them) to any team who makes espn freak out by knocking out both the Yankees and Red Sox from the playoffs (well, kept NYY out of the playoffs, knocked out Boston).  I would really tip my hat to them if they were willing to take Mr Sheffield off of Detroit’s hands.

Big Al and Greg Eno talk about Steve Blass in relation to Dontrelle Willis.  My thoughts:  I don’t know what happened with Steve Blass.  I believe Rick Ankiel’s issue was mental — he’s an awesome athlete and there is no other explanation for losing his pitching skill.  Dontrelle, however, doesn’t seem to have a mental issue.  He might kill the next batter he faces because he can’t control his fastball, but he has no fear of throwing the pitch.  I think that is what separates him from the Steve Blass syndrome — he’s not a headcase.

Most likely, Dontrelle was able to get by purely on talent / skill and not mechanics.  As things caught up to him (he went to a better league, he got older, his body started changing a little), he hasn’t been able to adapt.  Maybe he’ll never adapt, maybe he’s done.  But I don’t think he’s a headcase, and that’s probably why Detroit thinks he can be salvaged.  Or maybe they don’t, they have no choice but to try.  One thing he does not lack, however, is confidence.

In terms of the new pitching coach (Rick Knapp), I’m excited.  Its nice to have someone new, not part of the good ol’ boys network, or a retread.  I think what I can only assume is a more hands-on style (due to his extensive work in the minors) will help Detroit’s starters.  And let’s be honest — they have plenty of guys who need work (Bonderman, Robertson, Willis) as well as guys who need ‘tweaks’ (Verlander, Rodney).

If Knapp can help Bonderman and / or Robertson regain their sliders, would either be closing candidates?  Both are big and strong, both have problems throwing over 6 innings without giving up a big inning, and both rely extensively on their slider.  After watching Brad Lidge save game one last night for the Phillies, I wonder if either of detroit’s slider-happy pitchers could duplicate that success?  If you can’t get Bonderman to throw a split finger or a change-up, i think they need to at least entertain the idea.

Keeping it simple.. I watched the last three innings of the first world series game last night.  Love both teams, rooting for the Phillies.  Couple of things stood out to me:

• How can anyone watch these games on TV?  It must take sixteen hours to get through one of them.. and to have to listen to these douchebag commentators?
• They stated it, and i looked it to verify:  The Phillies are 79-0 (86-0 if you count the playoffs) in 2008 if they are leading after the eighth inning.  Holy Shit.  That’s what a bullpen can do for you.  I know Detroit struggled on both sides of the pitching staff this year, but… man… 86-0.
• I love Ryan Howard, and I almost cried watching him take strike three in the top of the ninth.  Actually I yelled so loud my wife came running into the room, hoping i had impaled myself and she could collect the insurance money.  He looks lost at the plate.
• It pains me to see Carlos Pena on a major league team.  I think he’s a headcase that couldn’t quite put it together in Detroit.  Imagine if he HAD turned out here.. what a great trade (Pena / Bonderman for Jeff Weaver).  That might have turned into one of the better trades in history.
• Side Note:  Also included in the trade was Franklyn German, quite frankly a name I’m not sure how to pronounce correctly (probably Herman???)… at a game at Joker Marchant last spring, a 75 year old man was wearing a Franklyn German jersey, and my brother in law & I just looked at each other…
• No idea who will win the series, or even game 2.  I do think that the first game in Philly will be CRAZY…
• This whole “who wins the all-star game gets home field advantage” is crap.  Interesting — Brad Lidge took the loss for the NL, though the NL ran out of pitchers so it wasn’t really fair.